West Bengal Assembly Elections: Tug of war in Bengal
Intro – By providing various schemes for women, Mamata Banerjee has kept them on her side so far. This is why she has consistently achieved success in elections. It would not be surprising if, keeping her core vote base in mind, Mamata announces some more attractive schemes for women in the new year. BJP’s strength lies in its Hindutva ideology and Narendra Modi’s image. By winning 77 seats last time, the BJP had signaled its growing strength in Bengal. The hatred towards Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, the intensive voter revision (SIR), and the success of the BJP in the Haryana, Maharashtra, Delhi and Bihar elections have not only boosted the BJP’s morale but could also have an impact on the Bengal elections.
There is not much time left for the West Bengal Assembly elections. The elections are likely to be held in March-April of next year, 2026. The term of the current assembly will end on May 7, 2026. This time, in addition to the Left parties and Congress, several other parties such as Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, Humayun Kabir’s proposed new party (after his expulsion from the Trinamool Congress), and ISF will be in the fray. However, the main contest appears to be between the TMC and the BJP. Last time, the BJP won 77 seats, becoming the second-largest party in the assembly after the TMC. Mamata Banerjee formed the government, but the BJP’s growing stature is a major challenge for her. The Left Front, which once ruled Bengal, and the Congress were left empty-handed in the last election.
PM’s visit increases political activity in Bengal
Speculations have already begun about what will happen in this election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Bengal on Sunday. He was scheduled to address a public meeting in Taherpur, Krishnanagar, a Matua-dominated area. Due to bad weather, his plane could not land in Taherpur. A plan was then made for him to travel by road. However, due to time constraints, the PM addressed the rally virtually from Dum Dum airport. Union Home Minister and BJP’s election strategist, Amit Shah, is also scheduled to visit Bengal this month. If all goes well, he may also visit Bengal on December 29-30. This makes one thing clear: the BJP will contest the Bengal elections with full force this time as well.
BJP’s rise is causing tension for Mamata
In the context of the Bengal elections, it is important to understand the strength of the BJP and the TMC in Bengal. Why has the Trinamool Congress been continuously successful in Bengal since 2011? The Left parties, which ruled for more than three decades, have virtually disappeared from Bengal. The Congress also ruled Bengal for a long time, but now, like the Left parties also vanished from the assembly. Their representation in the Lok Sabha is also zero. Frustrated with the Left Front, people blindly trusted Mamata Banerjee. However, due to the looting of public funds, corruption, and Muslim appeasement, the TMC’s power has weakened. In 2021, Mamata succeeded in forming the government, but the BJP’s upward trend, which began with the Lok Sabha elections, continued in the last assembly elections as well. The BJP, which was once limited to 1-2 seats, saw a tremendous surge in its strength, and its seats in the assembly reached 77. This is a danger signal for the TMC.
Mamata Banerjee is following in Nitish Kumar’s footsteps
Mamata Banerjee has become the Chief Minister of Bengal for the third consecutive time. If she succeeds, she could become CM for the fourth time. If this happens, she could come close to the record of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Moreover, just like Nitish Kumar, Mamata has also cultivated her vote bank in different segments. Since coming to power, Mamata has been working to secure the votes of half the population (women), a strategy that mirrors Nitish Kumar’s approach. Nitish Kumar has done several unique things for the empowerment of women in Bihar. He has been implementing schemes like reservations for women in local body elections and jobs, creating a force of nearly 1.5 crore women self-help group members and providing bicycles, uniforms, and scholarships to schoolgirls since he first became Chief Minister in 2005. Mamata Banerjee has been following in his footsteps.
Understanding Mamata Banerjee’s Political Strategy
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, West Bengal had approximately 7.60 crore voters. Of these, male voters numbered around 3.85 to 3.90 crore, and female voters numbered approximately 3.70 to 3.75 crore. This means the number of female voters is only slightly less than that of male voters. This number is likely to decrease after the delimitation exercise, but the ratio of male to female voters is expected to remain similar. Keeping the number of female voters in mind, Mamata started wooing them from her very first term. Looking at Mamata’s schemes for women, she launched the Lakshmi Bhandar scheme in February 2021. This scheme benefits approximately 2.2 crore women aged 25 to 60 years. The government provides financial assistance of ₹1,000 per month to women from the general category and ₹1,200 to women from the SC/ST category. Payments have been ongoing since September 2021. These women, who are beneficiaries of the Mamata government’s schemes have been her saviors in three consecutive elections.
Schemes for female voters
Mamata Banerjee first took oath as Chief Minister in 2011. In 2013 she launched the Kanyashree Prakalpa scheme for school-going girls. On an annual basis, approximately 1.8 million girls receive scholarships under this scheme. 350,000 girls also receive a one-time grant. In addition, Mamata Banerjee launched the Rupashree Prakalpa scheme in 2018. In 2024-25 approximately 208,000 girls benefited from the Rupashree scheme. While Nitish Kumar named the women’s self-help groups in Bihar “Jeevika,” Mamata Banerjee named them “Anandadhara” in Bengal. This scheme has been running in Bengal since 2011 under the National Rural Livelihoods Mission. Millions of women in the state are directly or indirectly associated with this scheme. Mamata Banerjee also launched the Kishori Sashaktikaran Yojana – Sabla in 2011, which is still ongoing. The beneficiaries of this scheme are adolescent girls aged 11-18 years.
Mamata’s Real Strength: Women
By providing various benefits through different schemes for women Mamata Banerjee has kept them on her side so far. This is why she has consistently achieved success in elections. It wouldn’t be surprising if Mamata Banerjee announces some more attractive schemes for women. It’s possible that the financial assistance they receive will be increased. To capture Mamata’s stronghold, the BJP will first have to win over the women voters. If they succeeded in doing so. Then there is a possibility to hault the Mamata’s regime. Otherwise its fly high.
BJP’s strength
Mamata Banerjee has left no stone unturned to appease minority voters. Whether it’s fixing salaries for imams or organizing religious processions. Mamata has always stood by them. But now the situation has changed. Humayun Kabir- an MLA from Mamata Banerjee’s own party has created trouble for her by raising the Babri Masjid issue in Murshidabad. Mamata is already under fire from minorities over the SIR and Waqf laws. Now, Humayun Kabir has taken it upon himself to weaken her support base. Clearly, a division of Muslim votes will only benefit the BJP.
Mamata Banerjee in a Difficult Situation
Mamata Banerjee is facing the most difficult situation of her political career in West Bengal. She is caught between a rock and scissor. She can neither swallow nor spit it out. Hindus had already started abandoning her and now her politics of Muslim appeasement also seems to be failing. Hindu voters have turned towards the BJP. The election of 77 BJP MLAs last time was a clear indication of the growing attraction towards the party in Bengal. Firstly, the intensive voter revision (SIR) has severely damaged her image among those Muslims who had come from Bangladesh and Myanmar and made West Bengal their safe haven. Secondly, her suspended MLA Humayun Kabir has emerged as another crisis. If Kabir’s plan succeeds, Mamata Banerjee’s entire political game could be ruined. Kabir claims that Mamata Banerjee has been in power for 15 years thanks to minority votes. This time the minorities will teach her a lesson. Humayun Kabir is keeping a close eye on the 90 seats in the state with a significant minority population.
Mamata Backtracks on Her Stand on Waqf
Mamata Banerjee had earlier stated that she would not allow the Waqf Act to be implemented in Bengal. Her party Trinamool Congress (TMC) had created a huge uproar over this issue from the streets to Parliament. Muslims in Bengal were delighted that Mamata was supporting their cause. However, Mamata has now backtracked on her stand. She has easily allowed its implementation in Bengal. She has given permission to upload details of Waqf properties on the portal created by the Indian government for this purpose. This has become a major reason for the growing resentment towards her among the Muslims of Bengal. They now feel that Mamata is no less dangerous to them than the BJP. During the Bihar elections RJD leader and Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav also spoke of consigning the Waqf Act to the dustbin. Perhaps the disastrous performance of the Mahagathbandhan in the elections influenced Mamata’s change of stance.
Mamata’s Game Spoiled by SIR
As soon as discussions about SIR (Special Investigation Report) began in Bengal. Mamata Banerjee raised a huge hue and cry. She employed various tactics to stop it and continues even now. She is reassuring the infiltrators fleeing to Bangladesh out of fear of SIR telling them that they need not worry and that she will bring them back. Mamata Banerjee had even previously claimed that there were no infiltrators in Bengal. It is surprising how she is now saying the opposite of what she said exactly 20 years ago in the Lok Sabha regarding the increasing population of infiltrators. In fact Bangladeshi infiltrators have been the backbone of Bengal’s politics. They are abundant in border districts like Malda and Murshidabad. The key to winning a legislative or parliamentary seat lies in the hands of these Bangladeshi infiltrators. However, the Election Commission has thwarted Mamata’s attempts to obstruct the process. Mamata could do nothing. Mamata Banerjee now faces a challenge from Humayun Kabir.
The Foundation of Communal Politics in Bengal
According to the 2011 census the Muslim population in Bengal was 2.47 crore (approximately 27 percent) out of a total population of 9.13 crore. The Muslim population is now estimated to be around 30 percent. Humayun Kabir, who has pledged to rebuild the Babri Masjid is relying on these Muslim voters. Kabir claims that there are 90 Muslim-majority constituencies in Bengal where Muslims constitute more than 35 percent of the population. The BJP practices Hindutva politics in Bengal, while Mamata Banerjee advocates secular politics. In this context, Humayun Kabir has laid the foundation for communal politics. Clearly, this will divide the Muslim vote, directly benefiting the BJP. Meanwhile, Asaduddin Owaisi’s party AIMIM is also exploring opportunities in Bengal. He has consistently faced accusations of aiding the BJP. If the Muslim vote is split or diverted from the TMC due to Humayun Kabir and Owaisi the consequences are predictable.
